Archive for » January, 2009 «

Monday, January 19th, 2009 

The AFC was as hard-hitting as we expected in this contest featuring the top two defenses in the NFL. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco finally showed his rookie inexperience, throwing three picks as the Pittsburgh Steelers advanced with a 23-14 victory, covering the 5.5-point NFL spread. Big plays also carried the Steelers to the Super Bowl, as Santonio Holmes caught a 65-yard touchdown pass, while Troy Polamalu’s 40-yard interception for a score late in the fourth quarter sealed the game for Pittsburgh.

Arizona overcame the NFL betting odds to beat Philadelphia 32-25 at home as 4-point underdogs, and the Cardinals are now headed to their first Super Bowl. The Arizona defense continued their improvement, forcing three turnovers from the Eagles, while Kurt Warner was amazing, going 21-of-28 for 279 yards and four touchdowns.

Super Bowl XLIII odds have come out, with the Steelers opening up as 7-point favorites to win their sixth Super Bowl, while Arizona are under no pressure at all as their fans are just ecstatic to be mentioned in the same sentence as “Super Bowl XLIII Betting“.

Friday, January 16th, 2009 

Although the Ravens vs Steelers matchup seems to be getting all of the attention, the game I’m excited about is the Eagles vs Cardinals matchup. It’s tough to beat a team twice in a year. See: the Ravens/Titans game last week, or the Chargers/Colts game the week before. So does that mean that the game-to-game adjustments benefit someone in this Eagles vs Cardinals matchup?

Nonetheless, let’s get to some picks:

Eagles vs Cardinals odds: Eagles -4

The Eagles vs Cardinals spread is a little strange for an NFC Conference Championship game: the road team is favored by more than a field goal. It’s pretty rare that at this point in the season we would see a road team favored by so much, but that’s the case since no one really believes in the Cardinals.

One thing to keep in mind for this Eagles vs Cardinals line, the Cards did get blown out in the previous meeting and the question is how will they adjust? The Eagles pass defense seems to be the kryptonite to the Cards passing game while the Cardinals welcoming pass defense figures to be a huge weakness against the Eagles pass-happy offense.

I’ll go with the experience in this matchup.

Eagles vs Cardinals pick: Eagles -4

Ravens vs Steelers odds: Steelers -5.5

I’ll keep it short and sweet in this contest. Bla, bla, bla…physical contest…bla, bla, bla…tight defensive tilt…bla, bla, bla…division rivalry.

Bottom: in the previous two Ravens vs Steelers matchup this season, neither contest was decided by more than this spread so I’ll take the points.

Ravens vs Steelers pick: Ravens +5.5

Thursday, January 15th, 2009 

So Sam Bradford decides to return for his senior season, even though he said he wouldn’t be coming back to Oklahoma prior to the Championship game, and Mark Sanchez is not.

There isn’t sportsbook odds up on it, but I’m willing to bet that because Bradford decided to stay, Sanchez decided to leave.

According to the sportsbook lines, Matt Stafford will be the consensus No. 1 quarterback but now that Bradford is out of the way, Sanchez will be the clearcut No. 2 and with a good workout, could end up being Stafford’s 1a.

Bradford made a poor decision because this figures to be the final draft where NFL rookie salaries are out of whack. There could be a work stoppage in 2010 and even though the season might be uncapped, rookie contracts is one of the first things on the agenda to be changed.

That means if Bradford is a top five pick, he can piss away a good $20 M – roughly speaking.

Those who bet online know it’s not a shrewd decision but that’s why we bet the games and not play them.

Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 

Are the Philadelphia Eagles the Arizona Cardinals kryptonite? Sportsbook odds have the Eagles as a four-point favorite over the Cardinals, yet the Cardinals are at home. The bookmakers are clearly saying that the Eagles are the better team.

The Cardinals simply don’t run the ball and if you had to pick a weakness in the Eagles defense, it would be their run defense. The Eagles have the third-best pass defense and they have a quartet of solid corners that can play with anyone. More importantly in this Eagles vs Cardinals matchup is the fact that the Eagles, who send a variety of exotic blitzes, will find a way to pressure Kurt Warner.

On the flip side, the Eagles are very much a passing team themselves. And the good news for them is that the Cardinals have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league. On top of that, Brian Westbrook figures to have a big day.

As long as the Eagles, the Northbet Favorite, don’t make a ton of mistakes like the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers did, they should come up on the winning end of this Eagles vs Cardinals matchup.

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009 

Ray Lewis has instilled the mantra of anybody, anytime and anywhere for the Baltimore Ravens but the one team they probably would have rather avoided was their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sportsbook odds have the Steelers favored by six points in the contest but you have to wonder how much the previous bye week will help the Steelers.

The two teams met up in Week 15 in which the Steelers won the game by controversial decision. But in winning the game, the Steelers ended up not only winning the division, but also securing a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs against anyone in the AFC except for the Tennessee Titans.

In this Ravens vs Steelers matchup, you know it’s going to be another physical contest. If that’s the case, it’s hard not to side with the team that should be more fresh.

The Ravens have played football for 17 straight Northbet.com betting weeks, which will be taxing on the body. If you recall, the Ravens were supposed to have a Week 10 bye but it was bumped up to Week 2 because of Hurricane Ike in Houston, where the Ravens were supposed to play.

Online betting handicappers know that the Steelers are similarly a very smash mouth team but they had a second by week two weeks ago, and then faced the San Diego Chargers last week in a not-so-physical matchup.

On the flipside, the Ravens duked it out with the Tennessee Titans.

The Ravens vs Steelers matchup will be a blood and guts game but as the sportsbook odds indicate, with the Steelers holding an edge in home-field advantage and in freshness, it’s hard not to side with them. I expect them to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIII.

Monday, January 12th, 2009 

First of all, shout out to Tony Dungy, who announced he was retiring from his head-coaching position with the Indianapolis Colts. Dungy was the first African-American coach to win a Super Bowl, and his string of 10 consecutive playoff appearances is an NFL record. Respect. Now, onto business:

Baltimore just keeps forcing turnovers, causing three in a 13-10 victory on the road to knock off the AFC’s top seed, Tennessee. That’s now eight turnovers in two games, and they have committed only one. The Ravens were 3-point NFL betting underdogs.

Pittsburgh held San Diego’s rushing attack to 15 yards in a 35-24 win at home as 6-point NFL betting favorites. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t even throw a single pick. Amazing.

Arizona forced six turnovers, including five Jake Delhomme interceptions, as they romped to a 33-13 win in Carolina as massive 10-point NFL betting underdogs. If someone would have told me the Cardinals would be in the NFC title game, I would have slapped the skin off their face.

There will be a new Super Bowl champion as the Giants lost 23-11 to Philadelphia at home as 4-point NFL betting favorites. The Eagles committed two turnoves, but forced three, and as this weekend proved, if you win the turnover battle, you usually win the war.

Thursday, January 08th, 2009 

Remember this dude. It could be a long night for Dominique Franks.

This guy had the nerve to say that Florida quarterback Tim Tebow would be no better than the fourth-best quarterback in the Big 12 this season. Granted, the Big 12 had an amazing year offensively, but there isn’t a team in college football (except MAYBE Oklahoma) that wouldn’t want Tebow on their team. It is comments like this, as well as a healthy Percy Harvin, that has made the Gators a 5-point favorite according to BCS championship odds, and as high as 10 points in some sportsbook odds.

Franks is gonna mess around and become the college version of Pittsburgh’s Anthony Smith.

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Wednesday, January 07th, 2009 

When I start breaking out the Mortal Kombat references, you know I’m giddy. I can’t help it…playoff NFL betting is in full swing. Well, last week it looks like I fared the same as every online sports betting expert – two losses on Saturday, two wins on Sunday. Let’s see if my football betting luck can change this time around.

On with my Divisional-Playoff NFL picks!

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS (-3)

It’s a good thing there are no ties in the playoffs, as these mirror-image squads would probably battle to a stalemate. They both have caretaker quarterbacks with cannons, strong running games, and mean defenses. While Kerry Collins’ experience could give Tennessee the Betting Edge, he’s not the quarterback he was in 2000 during the Giants’ Super Bowl betting run.

LOGICAL PICK: Ravens. Ed Reed may look strangely old for his age, but he’s still hungry and ready to dominate. Tennessee is for real, but Baltimore is more battle-hardened and built to win now. They’re the better online betting choice. They’re also a surprising +600 in futures Super Bowl betting, making them a nice value pick.

ILLOGICAL PICK: Titans. Because Chris Johnson while find an even higher gear and literally teleport from one endzone to the other.

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-10)

At first glance, that 10-point spread looks a little extreme in the Cardinals vs Panthers line. The Panthers’ pass D is nothing special, and Arizona made a big statement to NFL betting players in last week’s win over Atlanta. The Cards stopped the run…they ran the football…they allowed no sacks. Uh, what? I’m not saying it was a total fluke, but that was in comfy Arizona. Now they’re on the road against a Panthers team that hasn’t lost at home this season.

LOGICAL PICK: Panthers. The spread is a bit tricky, and Arizona will score points, but Cards flat out stink on the road. Their lone road wins came against NCAA Division II tea – er, Seattle, St. Louis and San Francisco. Anquan Boldin also isn’t guaranteed to play. Bet online on Carolina, will ya?

ILLOGICAL PICK: Cardinals. Steve Smith could snap at any moment and attack any living thing in the stadium, leaving Jake Delhomme without a target.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW YORK GIANTS (-4)

Defending Super Bowl betting champs? Only favored by four? At home? Yep, Philly has been that hot lately. The Eagles’ D is legit against the run and the pass. But the league’s top rushing attack — featuring two 1,000-yard rushers in Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward – will be a lot to handle. Eli Manning sure could use a reliable target right now, though. Thanks, Plaxico.

LOGICAL PICK: Giants. They’ll put heat on Donovan McNabb and find some holes in the running game. AP did have that one home run last week. So NFL betting fans should have faith.

ILLOGICAL PICK: Still the Giants. Maybe Burress has developed his sniper skills and can, ahem, “influence” the game a-la-The Last Boy Scout?

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6)

If you bet on sports, you have to love Darren Sproles. He almost single-handedly led many online sports betting players to the promised land last week as the Chargers toppled the Colts in overtime. I’ll mercifully leave the lightning-strikes-twice puns out of the Bolts discussion, but you do have to wonder if they have a shot in the Chargers vs. Steelers line. I’m skeptical; cold, steel-infested Pittsburgh is not sunny San Diego.

LOGICAL PICK: Steelers. Their defense is so good, it could almost play the entire game.

ILLOGICAL PICK: Chargers. If Big Ben goes down again, beware the hand of Byron Leftwich!

Good luck in this weekend’s NFL betting action, folks. Let’s bet online and try to go better than 2-2 this time around.

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Monday, January 05th, 2009 

Weird Saturday for NFL betting fans, wasn’t it?

it’s safe to say Sunday went as predicted for most people who bet online, but Saturday…well, did anyone see either of those games coming? The Colts were my darkhorse NFL betting pick for the Super Bowl, for cryin’ out loud.

Who rained on my parade? Was it Phil “How the Hell did I not make the Pro Bowl Rivers”? Nope…his stat line wasn’t too pretty. Then it must’ve been a vintage day for LaDainian Tomlinson, right? Wrong. Darren Sproles basically had the football in his hands for the entire game…and LT watched on the sidelines.

Online sports betting fans, it may be time to say goodbye to LT2. Apparently his groin injury could shut him down for the remainder of the season. Now, I’m wondering if he even has enough in the tank to remain an NFL starter. If he does still have the job next year, I wouldn’t bet online that he keeps it all season.

At least he has another job lined up…

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